Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -115 AUB -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -0.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.7 (-7.3) | 152.3 (+5.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -0.2 (-8.2) | 151.4 (+6.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -0.1 (-8.1) | 152.6 (+5.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.1 (-8.1) | 153.8 (+4.2) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#33) | 12.2 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#54) | 1.88 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#45) | 2.35 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#86) | 0.584 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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