But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
(5) San Diego State Aztecs
63 57
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Charleston Cougars
Kia Center (Neutral) · March 16, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money SDSU -225 / COFC +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +6 120 Won
Massey SDSU -4.4 (+1.6)
Massey Totals 141.0 (-21.0)
Bradley-Terry 61%
Weighted B-T 62%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -3.1 (+2.9) 137.4 (-17.4) 68%
Model 4 ML SDSU -5.2 (+0.8) 137.4 (-17.4) 75%
Model 3 ML SDSU -4.1 (+1.9) 137.8 (-17.8) 65%
Baseline ML SDSU -3.8 (+2.2) 137.3 (-17.3) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU COFC
Overall 32-7 31-4
Conference 15-3 16-2
Home 15-1 17-1
Away 8-2 11-2
Neutral 9-4 3-1
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 79.6
Avg Pts Against 63.6 67.2
Massey 13.4 (#19) 9.0 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 2.74 (#12) 2.30 (#25)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.12 (#15) 2.63 (#29)
RPI 0.630 (#6) 0.584 (#31)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU COFC
FG% 44.1% 43.6%
3PT% 34.4% 33.3%
REB / G 35.6 40.4
OREB / G 10.6 13.5
AST / TO 1.11 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 51.5%
TOV% 17.5% 16.7%
ORB% 31.7% 35.1%
FT Rate 25.2% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 19.3%
DRB% 74.2% 74.5%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 16.8%

Game Analysis

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