Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -225 COFC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -4.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -2.5 (+3.5) | 138.4 (-18.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -3.0 (+3.0) | 137.6 (-17.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.7 (+4.3) | 138.7 (-18.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -2.4 (+3.6) | 138.5 (-18.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#19) | 9.0 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#12) | 2.30 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#15) | 2.63 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#6) | 0.584 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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