Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ +100 USU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.6 (+13.6) | 155.5 (-14.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.6 (+13.6) | 150.9 (-9.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.8 (+12.8) | 152.6 (-11.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.4 (+13.4) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#56) | 13.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#23) | 2.33 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#33) | 2.95 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#41) | 0.610 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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