Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | KSU -125 FAU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -0.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -0.5 (-3.5) | 145.9 (+9.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | KSU -0.8 (-3.8) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FAU -1.2 (-1.8) | 147.7 (+7.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -1.2 (-1.8) | 147.5 (+7.5) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 18-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#21) | 13.6 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#12) | 3.26 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#16) | 3.47 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#27) | 0.626 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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