But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
(3) Kansas State Wildcats
76 79
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Florida Atlantic Owls
Madison Square Garden (Neutral) · March 25, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread KSU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money KSU -125 / FAU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total KSU win
Actual FAU +3 155 Lost
Massey FAU -0.3 (-2.7)
Massey Totals 146.1 (+8.9)
Bradley-Terry 36%
Weighted B-T 42%
Baseline Plus ML KSU -0.5 (-3.5) 145.9 (+9.1) 51%
Model 4 ML KSU -0.8 (-3.8) 145.8 (+9.2) 45%
Model 3 ML FAU -1.2 (-1.8) 147.7 (+7.3) 47%
Baseline ML FAU -1.2 (-1.8) 147.5 (+7.5) 38%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KSU FAU
Overall 26-10 35-4
Conference 11-7 18-2
Home 16-1 17-0
Away 4-7 11-3
Neutral 6-2 7-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 77.2
Avg Pts Against 69.9 65.6
Massey 13.3 (#21) 13.6 (#17)
Bradley-Terry 2.69 (#12) 3.26 (#4)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.14 (#16) 3.47 (#11)
RPI 0.589 (#27) 0.626 (#6)
Shooting & Four Factors KSU FAU
FG% 46.1% 46.2%
3PT% 34.0% 36.5%
REB / G 35.0 38.6
OREB / G 10.0 10.8
AST / TO 1.23 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 54.3%
TOV% 19.4% 16.5%
ORB% 30.4% 31.1%
FT Rate 27.2% 20.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 20.7% 17.9%
DRB% 70.1% 74.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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