Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -450 IONA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -9.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -7.0 (+17.0) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.7 (+16.3) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -7.1 (+16.9) | 142.5 (+7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.6 (+17.4) | 144.5 (+5.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#6) | 9.0 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#15) | 1.14 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#9) | 1.30 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#35) | 0.592 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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