Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -400 MIA +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +14 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -10.0 (-24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.3 (-21.3) | 137.3 (+26.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.7 (-20.7) | 133.2 (+30.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.3 (-20.3) | 136.1 (+27.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -8.2 (-22.2) | 136.9 (+27.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 11-0 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#2) | 10.8 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#2) | 2.53 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.44 (#1) | 3.22 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#2) | 0.602 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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