Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -133 DRKE +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.3 (+5.7) | 146.2 (-27.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -2.2 (+4.8) | 143.3 (-24.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.4 (+4.6) | 144.0 (-25.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.6 (+5.4) | 144.1 (-25.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | DRKE 80 – 69 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#48) | 8.3 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#20) | 1.62 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#16) | 1.89 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#23) | 0.572 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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