Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | CONN -260 MIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +13 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -8.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.3 (+6.7) | 152.0 (-21.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.3 (+7.7) | 146.2 (-15.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.7 (+8.3) | 149.2 (-18.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.4 (+7.6) | 150.7 (-19.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#3) | 11.9 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#11) | 2.81 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#4) | 3.61 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#13) | 0.617 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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