Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -213 XAV +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -4.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -2.7 (+9.3) | 149.5 (+4.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -2.0 (+10.0) | 148.0 (+6.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -2.0 (+10.0) | 150.0 (+4.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -2.6 (+9.4) | 147.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2025 | XAV 86 – 80 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#6) | 13.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#7) | 2.58 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#6) | 3.54 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#11) | 0.609 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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