Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +120 XAV -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -0.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.1 (-5.9) | 151.6 (+14.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TEX -0.4 (-6.4) | 149.1 (+16.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | XAV -0.1 (-5.9) | 151.5 (+14.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -0.6 (-6.6) | 151.1 (+14.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 25, 2023 | TEX 83 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#39) | 13.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#40) | 1.82 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#40) | 2.49 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.555 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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