That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
(2) Texas Longhorns
71 66
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(10) Penn State Nittany Lions
Wells Fargo Arena (Neutral) · March 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TEX -5.0 Push
O/U 137.5 Under
Money TEX -230 / PSU +190
Model Predictions
Spread Total TEX win
Actual TEX +5 137 Won
Massey TEX -7.4 (-2.4)
Massey Totals 143.1 (-6.1)
Bradley-Terry 75%
Weighted B-T 78%
Baseline Plus ML TEX -5.9 (-0.9) 138.9 (-1.9) 76%
Model 4 ML TEX -7.0 (-2.0) 139.4 (-2.4) 76%
Model 3 ML TEX -6.9 (-1.9) 140.6 (-3.6) 79%
Baseline ML TEX -6.6 (-1.6) 139.0 (-2.0) 77%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TEX PSU
Overall 29-9 23-14
Conference 12-6 10-10
Home 17-1 13-3
Away 4-6 4-7
Neutral 8-2 6-3
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.0 72.2
Avg Pts Against 67.8 68.2
Massey 18.1 (#6) 10.6 (#40)
Bradley-Terry 3.06 (#6) 1.98 (#36)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.74 (#7) 2.50 (#34)
RPI 0.612 (#12) 0.559 (#65)
Shooting & Four Factors TEX PSU
FG% 47.0% 46.5%
3PT% 34.6% 39.0%
REB / G 34.6 32.6
OREB / G 9.9 6.1
AST / TO 1.37 1.55
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 55.7%
TOV% 16.7% 13.7%
ORB% 28.7% 19.0%
FT Rate 23.4% 15.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 22.7% 13.3%
DRB% 70.8% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 18.2%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.