Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -5.0 Push |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TEX -230 PSU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -7.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -6.0 (-1.0) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -5.3 (-0.3) | 139.6 (-2.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -4.6 (+0.4) | 139.7 (-2.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -5.8 (-0.8) | 138.6 (-1.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#6) | 10.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#6) | 1.98 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#7) | 2.50 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#12) | 0.559 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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