Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -200 MIA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -6.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -4.5 (-11.5) | 150.6 (+18.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -3.7 (-10.7) | 146.9 (+22.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -3.6 (-10.6) | 149.3 (+19.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -4.7 (-11.7) | 149.5 (+19.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#6) | 11.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#6) | 2.68 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#6) | 3.45 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#8) | 0.611 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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