Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -190 ARK +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -5.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.0 (+17.0) | 140.0 (+13.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | CONN -7.2 (+15.8) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | CONN -4.6 (+18.4) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -4.9 (+18.1) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#4) | 13.9 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#11) | 2.11 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#8) | 2.49 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#23) | 0.594 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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