Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | NU -125 BOIS +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -0.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -0.7 (+8.7) | 129.5 (+12.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -0.4 (+7.6) | 128.0 (+14.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -0.1 (+8.1) | 130.1 (+11.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -0.4 (+8.4) | 130.5 (+11.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#37) | 11.5 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#38) | 2.14 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#41) | 2.69 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#72) | 0.590 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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