Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UK -200 PROV +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UK -1.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-33.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.6 (+5.4) | 147.9 (-33.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.0 (+6.0) | 144.9 (-30.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.7 (+5.3) | 147.6 (-33.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -3.3 (+4.7) | 149.8 (-35.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#28) | 10.7 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#30) | 1.70 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#29) | 2.29 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#47) | 0.541 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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