And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
(4) Tennessee Volunteers
55 62
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Florida Atlantic Owls
Madison Square Garden (Neutral) · March 24, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TENN -4.5 Away covered
O/U 129.0 Under
Money TENN -220 / FAU +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total TENN win
Actual FAU +7 117 Lost
Massey TENN -5.5 (-12.5)
Massey Totals 128.8 (-11.8)
Bradley-Terry 33%
Weighted B-T 44%
Baseline Plus ML TENN -4.2 (-11.2) 128.8 (-11.8) 61%
Model 4 ML TENN -6.9 (-13.9) 126.8 (-9.8) 63%
Model 3 ML TENN -3.3 (-10.3) 128.3 (-11.3) 64%
Baseline ML TENN -4.1 (-11.1) 128.2 (-11.2) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TENN FAU
Overall 25-11 35-4
Conference 11-7 18-2
Home 14-2 17-0
Away 4-6 11-3
Neutral 7-3 7-1
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.8 77.2
Avg Pts Against 57.9 65.6
Massey 18.7 (#5) 13.2 (#21)
Bradley-Terry 2.42 (#18) 3.14 (#5)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.05 (#19) 3.29 (#11)
RPI 0.610 (#14) 0.620 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors TENN FAU
FG% 43.6% 46.4%
3PT% 33.0% 36.7%
REB / G 38.5 38.6
OREB / G 12.8 10.8
AST / TO 1.39 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.2% 54.4%
TOV% 18.4% 16.4%
ORB% 36.4% 30.9%
FT Rate 22.0% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 42.7% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 22.1% 18.1%
DRB% 73.4% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 19.5%

Game Analysis

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