Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | TENN -220 FAU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +7 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -5.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.8 (-9.8) | 128.7 (-11.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -4.7 (-11.7) | 126.9 (-9.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -2.9 (-9.9) | 129.2 (-12.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -3.2 (-10.2) | 128.3 (-11.3) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#5) | 13.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#18) | 3.14 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#19) | 3.29 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#14) | 0.620 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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