Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -700 UCSB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -10.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -7.9 (+10.1) | 144.5 (-14.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -10.3 (+7.7) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -7.4 (+10.6) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -7.2 (+10.8) | 145.0 (-15.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#12) | 4.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#11) | 1.09 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.32 (#11) | 1.11 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#16) | 0.536 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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