I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
(3) Gonzaga Bulldogs
84 81
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) TCU Horned Frogs
Ball Arena (Neutral) · March 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -4.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money GONZ -205 / TCU +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total GONZ win
Actual GONZ +3 165 Won
Massey GONZ -4.1 (-1.1)
Massey Totals 156.8 (+8.2)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 75%
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -2.7 (+0.3) 155.8 (+9.2) 70%
Model 4 ML GONZ -3.8 (-0.8) 154.7 (+10.3) 77%
Model 3 ML GONZ -3.4 (-0.4) 154.2 (+10.8) 69%
Baseline ML GONZ -3.4 (-0.4) 151.6 (+13.4) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GONZ TCU
Overall 31-6 22-13
Conference 14-2 9-9
Home 15-1 13-4
Away 7-2 4-7
Neutral 9-3 5-2
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 85.2 75.3
Avg Pts Against 74.2 68.4
Massey 17.3 (#7) 13.2 (#22)
Bradley-Terry 3.19 (#4) 2.26 (#25)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.04 (#3) 2.94 (#22)
RPI 0.638 (#4) 0.537 (#98)
Shooting & Four Factors GONZ TCU
FG% 52.3% 45.4%
3PT% 38.6% 30.8%
REB / G 36.3 35.8
OREB / G 10.2 11.5
AST / TO 1.53 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.5% 49.9%
TOV% 14.8% 16.9%
ORB% 31.1% 32.5%
FT Rate 24.1% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.7% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 21.9%
DRB% 74.2% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 21.2%

Game Analysis

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