Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -205 TCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -2.7 (+0.3) | 155.8 (+9.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GONZ -3.8 (-0.8) | 154.7 (+10.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GONZ -3.4 (-0.4) | 154.2 (+10.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -3.4 (-0.4) | 151.6 (+13.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#7) | 13.2 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#4) | 2.26 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#3) | 2.94 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#4) | 0.537 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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