Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
(6) Iowa State Cyclones
41 59
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) Pittsburgh Panthers
First Horizon Coliseum (Neutral) · March 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ISU -4.5 Away covered
O/U 131.5 Under
Money ISU -180 / PITT +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total ISU win
Actual PITT +18 100 Lost
Massey ISU -5.6 (-23.6)
Massey Totals 130.2 (-30.2)
Bradley-Terry 62%
Weighted B-T 70%
Baseline Plus ML ISU -4.0 (-22.0) 133.2 (-33.2) 56%
Model 4 ML ISU -5.2 (-23.2) 130.9 (-30.9) 59%
Model 3 ML ISU -4.0 (-22.0) 132.0 (-32.0) 69%
Baseline ML ISU -5.1 (-23.1) 134.9 (-34.9) 44%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ISU PITT
Overall 19-14 24-12
Conference 9-9 14-6
Home 13-3 14-3
Away 3-8 7-5
Neutral 3-3 3-4
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.6 75.1
Avg Pts Against 62.6 69.7
Massey 13.5 (#18) 7.9 (#78)
Bradley-Terry 2.23 (#25) 1.74 (#47)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.88 (#23) 2.03 (#55)
RPI 0.550 (#75) 0.569 (#51)
Shooting & Four Factors ISU PITT
FG% 45.0% 45.1%
3PT% 33.9% 36.2%
REB / G 33.5 35.9
OREB / G 11.4 10.2
AST / TO 1.07 1.30
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.7% 53.1%
TOV% 19.8% 16.3%
ORB% 33.9% 29.9%
FT Rate 18.7% 24.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.1% 49.0%
Opp TOV% 24.9% 16.8%
DRB% 73.4% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 28.8% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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