Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -180 PITT +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +18 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -5.6 (-23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (-30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -3.9 (-21.9) | 133.6 (-33.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -4.4 (-22.4) | 130.4 (-30.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -3.6 (-21.6) | 133.2 (-33.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -4.3 (-22.3) | 135.0 (-35.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#18) | 7.9 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#25) | 1.74 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#23) | 2.03 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#75) | 0.569 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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