Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | KSU -120 MSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +5 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -1.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+52.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -1.4 (+3.6) | 141.7 (+49.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -0.6 (+4.4) | 139.0 (+52.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -0.8 (+4.2) | 140.4 (+50.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -1.5 (+3.5) | 141.8 (+49.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#20) | 11.8 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#12) | 2.16 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#17) | 2.75 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#35) | 0.591 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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