And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
(3) Kansas State Wildcats
98 93 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(7) Michigan State Spartans
Madison Square Garden (Neutral) · March 23, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread KSU -1.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Money KSU -120 / MSU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total KSU win
Actual KSU +5 191 Won
Massey KSU -1.4 (+3.6)
Massey Totals 138.8 (+52.2)
Bradley-Terry 61%
Weighted B-T 58%
Baseline Plus ML KSU -1.5 (+3.5) 141.2 (+49.8) 62%
Model 4 ML KSU -1.1 (+3.9) 141.6 (+49.4) 62%
Model 3 ML KSU -1.4 (+3.6) 141.1 (+49.9) 59%
Baseline ML KSU -1.7 (+3.3) 141.3 (+49.7) 57%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KSU MSU
Overall 26-10 21-13
Conference 11-7 11-8
Home 16-1 12-2
Away 4-7 4-7
Neutral 6-2 5-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 70.9
Avg Pts Against 69.9 67.9
Massey 13.2 (#20) 11.8 (#32)
Bradley-Terry 2.61 (#12) 2.16 (#27)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.07 (#17) 2.75 (#25)
RPI 0.584 (#35) 0.591 (#26)
Shooting & Four Factors KSU MSU
FG% 45.8% 45.1%
3PT% 33.6% 38.7%
REB / G 35.1 35.6
OREB / G 10.1 8.9
AST / TO 1.19 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 51.4%
TOV% 19.7% 16.3%
ORB% 30.5% 27.3%
FT Rate 27.5% 20.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.5% 48.1%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 15.0%
DRB% 70.2% 74.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 20.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.