You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
(2) UCLA Bruins
68 – 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(7) Northwestern Wildcats
Golden 1 Center (Neutral) · March 19, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCLA -7.5 Away covered
O/U 126.5 Over
Money UCLA -350 / NU +275
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCLA win
Actual UCLA +5 131 Won
Massey UCLA -8.6 (-3.6) — —
Massey Totals — 122.1 (+8.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 73% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 77% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UCLA -7.8 (-2.8) 129.1 (+1.9) 78% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UCLA -5.9 (-0.9) 126.3 (+4.7) 78% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UCLA -6.3 (-1.3) 129.0 (+2.0) 76% ✓
Baseline ML UCLA -7.0 (-2.0) 129.1 (+1.9) 80% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 UCLA 71 – 64 NU
Mar 4, 2025 UCLA 73 – 69 NU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCLA NU
Overall 31-6 22-12
Conference 18-2 12-8
Home 17-0 13-5
Away 9-2 7-4
Neutral 5-4 2-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.1 67.7
Avg Pts Against 60.7 62.8
Massey 19.7 (#3) 11.1 (#35)
Bradley-Terry 3.00 (#7) 1.99 (#34)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.64 (#8) 2.44 (#37)
RPI 0.620 (#8) 0.558 (#66)
Shooting & Four Factors UCLA NU
FG% 46.1% 40.8%
3PT% 34.6% 32.2%
REB / G 35.9 34.5
OREB / G 11.7 10.2
AST / TO 1.42 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 47.4%
TOV% 15.1% 14.8%
ORB% 34.0% 28.3%
FT Rate 19.6% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 23.7% 21.4%
DRB% 72.5% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 19.2% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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