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Baseline — 2023 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
45–22 on winners log loss 0.5173 upsets called 3 upsets missed 16 First Four 2–2 · 1st Round 22–10 · 2nd Round 12–4 · Sweet 16 4–4 · Elite 8 2–2 · Final Four 2–0 · National Championship 1–0

East

1 Purdue 58
16 FDU 63
FF: FDU 84, TXSO 61
✗ PUR 87%
8 Memphis 65
9 FAU 66
✗ MEM 55%
5 Duke 74
12 Oral Roberts 51
✓ DUKE 64%
4 Tennessee 58
13 Louisiana 55
✓ TENN 85%
6 Kentucky 61
11 Providence 53
✓ UK 71%
3 Kansas St 77
14 Montana St 65
✓ KSU 83%
7 Michigan St 72
10 USC 62
✓ MSU 59%
2 Marquette 78
15 Vermont 61
✓ MARQ 85%
16 FDU 70
9 FAU 78
✓ FAU 89%
5 Duke 52
4 Tennessee 65
✓ TENN 68%
6 Kentucky 69
3 Kansas St 75
✓ KSU 61%
7 Michigan St 69
2 Marquette 60
✗ MARQ 70%
9 FAU 62
4 Tennessee 55
✗ TENN 55%
3 Kansas St 98
7 Michigan St 93
✓ KSU 57%
9 FAU 79
3 Kansas St 76
✓ FAU 62%

South

1 Alabama 96
16 Texas A&M-CC 75
FF: AMCC 75, SEMO 71
✓ ALA 91%
8 Maryland 67
9 West Virginia 65
✗ WVU 54%
5 San Diego St 63
12 Charleston 57
✓ SDSU 69%
4 Virginia 67
13 Furman 68
✗ UVA 69%
6 Creighton 72
11 NC State 63
✓ CREI 69%
3 Baylor 74
14 Santa Barbara 56
✓ BAY 81%
7 Missouri 76
10 Utah State 65
✗ USU 52%
2 Arizona 55
15 Princeton 59
✗ ARIZ 82%
1 Alabama 73
8 Maryland 51
✓ ALA 84%
5 San Diego St 75
13 Furman 52
✓ SDSU 78%
6 Creighton 85
3 Baylor 76
✓ CREI 61%
7 Missouri 63
15 Princeton 78
✗ MIZ 56%
1 Alabama 64
5 San Diego St 71
✗ ALA 61%
6 Creighton 86
15 Princeton 75
✓ CREI 81%
5 San Diego St 57
6 Creighton 56
✗ CREI 35%

Final Four

5 San Diego St 72
9 FAU 71
✓ SDSU 64%

Championship

4 UConn 76
5 San Diego St 59
✓ CONN 80%

Final Four

4 UConn 72
5 Miami 59
✓ CONN 78%

West

1 Kansas 96
16 Howard 68
✓ KU 89%
8 Arkansas 73
9 Illinois 63
✓ ARK 56%
5 Saint Mary's 63
12 VCU 51
✓ SMC 61%
4 UConn 87
13 Iona 63
✓ CONN 81%
6 TCU 72
11 Arizona St 70
FF: ASU 98, NEV 73
✓ TCU 56%
3 Gonzaga 82
14 Grand Canyon 70
✓ GONZ 85%
7 Northwestern 75
10 Boise St 67
✗ BOIS 54%
2 UCLA 86
15 UNC Asheville 53
✓ UCLA 90%
1 Kansas 71
8 Arkansas 72
✗ KU 55%
5 Saint Mary's 55
4 UConn 70
✓ CONN 77%
6 TCU 81
3 Gonzaga 84
✓ GONZ 62%
7 Northwestern 63
2 UCLA 68
✓ UCLA 84%
8 Arkansas 65
4 UConn 88
✓ CONN 66%
3 Gonzaga 79
2 UCLA 76
✗ UCLA 48%
4 UConn 82
3 Gonzaga 54
✓ CONN 61%

Midwest

1 Houston 63
16 N Kentucky 52
✓ HOU 90%
8 Iowa 75
9 Auburn 83
✗ IOWA 50%
5 Miami 63
12 Drake 56
✓ MIA 66%
4 Indiana 71
13 Kent State 60
✓ IU 61%
6 Iowa State 41
11 Pitt 59
FF: PITT 60, MSST 59
✗ ISU 44%
3 Xavier 72
14 Kennesaw St 67
✓ XAV 81%
7 Texas A&M 59
10 Penn State 76
✗ TA&M 40%
2 Texas 81
15 Colgate 61
✓ TEX 86%
1 Houston 81
9 Auburn 64
✓ HOU 84%
5 Miami 85
4 Indiana 69
✗ IU 54%
11 Pitt 73
3 Xavier 84
✓ XAV 62%
10 Penn State 66
2 Texas 71
✓ TEX 77%
1 Houston 75
5 Miami 89
✗ HOU 67%
3 Xavier 71
2 Texas 83
✓ TEX 67%
5 Miami 88
2 Texas 81
✗ TEX 60%