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Baseline — 2021 NCAA Tournament

Each decided game is marked by whether this model's pre-game favorite won — matchup by matchup, from predictions recorded before tip-off. Undecided games show the model's current pick.

Plain bracket
47–20 on winners log loss 0.5701 upsets called 2 upsets missed 17 First Four 3–1 · 1st Round 22–9 · 2nd Round 10–6 · Sweet 16 6–2 · Elite 8 3–1 · Final Four 2–0 · National Championship 0–1 · 1st Round Oregon advances due to uncontested game 1–0

East

1 Michigan 82
16 Texas Southern 66
FF: TXSO 60, MSM 52
✓ MICH 87%
8 LSU 76
9 St Bonaventure 61
✓ LSU 51%
5 Colorado 96
12 Georgetown 73
✓ COLO 67%
4 Florida St 64
13 UNC Greensboro 54
✓ FSU 73%
6 BYU 62
11 UCLA 73
FF: UCLA 86, MSU 80
✗ BYU 55%
3 Texas 52
14 Abilene Chrstn 53
✗ TEX 54%
7 UConn 54
10 Maryland 63
✗ CONN 64%
2 Alabama 68
15 Iona 55
✓ ALA 86%
1 Michigan 86
8 LSU 78
✓ MICH 64%
5 Colorado 53
4 Florida St 71
✗ COLO 62%
11 UCLA 67
14 Abilene Chrstn 47
✓ UCLA 58%
10 Maryland 77
2 Alabama 96
✓ ALA 73%
1 Michigan 76
4 Florida St 58
✓ MICH 62%
11 UCLA 88
2 Alabama 78
✗ ALA 66%
1 Michigan 49
11 UCLA 51
✗ MICH 63%

West

1 Gonzaga 98
16 Norfolk St 55
FF: NORF 54, APP 53
✓ GONZ 89%
8 Oklahoma 72
9 Missouri 68
✓ OU 53%
5 Creighton 63
12 Santa Barbara 62
✓ CREI 66%
4 Virginia 58
13 Ohio 62
✗ UVA 70%
6 USC 72
11 Drake 56
FF: DRKE 53, WICH 52
✓ USC 68%
3 Kansas 93
14 E Washington 84
✓ KU 74%
TBD
TBD
2 Iowa 86
15 Grand Canyon 74
✓ IOWA 84%
1 Gonzaga 87
8 Oklahoma 71
✓ GONZ 86%
5 Creighton 72
13 Ohio 58
✓ CREI 70%
6 USC 85
3 Kansas 51
✓ USC 65%
7 Oregon 95
2 Iowa 80
✗ IOWA 67%
1 Gonzaga 83
5 Creighton 65
✓ GONZ 83%
6 USC 82
7 Oregon 68
✓ USC 63%
1 Gonzaga 85
6 USC 66
✓ GONZ 76%

Final Four

1 Gonzaga 93
11 UCLA 90
✓ GONZ 83%

Championship

1 Gonzaga 70
1 Baylor 86
✗ GONZ 54%

Final Four

1 Baylor 78
2 Houston 59
✓ BAY 64%

South

1 Baylor 79
16 Hartford 55
✓ BAY 86%
8 North Carolina 62
9 Wisconsin 85
✗ UNC 47%
5 Villanova 73
12 Winthrop 63
✓ VILL 66%
4 Purdue 69
13 North Texas 78
✗ PUR 65%
6 Texas Tech 65
11 Utah State 53
✓ TTU 58%
3 Arkansas 85
14 Colgate 68
✓ ARK 52%
7 Florida 75
10 Virginia Tech 70
✓ FLA 54%
2 Ohio State 72
15 Oral Roberts 75
✗ OSU 86%
1 Baylor 76
9 Wisconsin 63
✓ BAY 73%
5 Villanova 84
13 North Texas 61
✓ VILL 61%
6 Texas Tech 66
3 Arkansas 68
✓ ARK 61%
7 Florida 78
15 Oral Roberts 81
✗ FLA 77%
1 Baylor 62
5 Villanova 51
✓ BAY 68%
3 Arkansas 72
15 Oral Roberts 70
✓ ARK 85%
1 Baylor 81
3 Arkansas 72
✓ BAY 67%

Midwest

1 Illinois 78
16 Drexel 49
✓ ILL 88%
8 Loyola Chicago 71
9 Georgia Tech 60
✓ LUC 59%
5 Tennessee 56
12 Oregon St 70
✗ TENN 76%
4 Oklahoma St 69
13 Liberty 60
✓ OKST 70%
6 San Diego St 62
11 Syracuse 78
✗ SDSU 61%
3 West Virginia 84
14 Morehead St 67
✓ WVU 82%
7 Clemson 56
10 Rutgers 60
✓ RUTG 56%
2 Houston 87
15 Cleveland St 56
✓ HOU 89%
1 Illinois 58
8 Loyola Chicago 71
✗ ILL 63%
12 Oregon St 80
4 Oklahoma St 70
✗ OKST 59%
11 Syracuse 75
3 West Virginia 72
✗ WVU 56%
10 Rutgers 60
2 Houston 63
✓ HOU 77%
8 Loyola Chicago 58
12 Oregon St 65
✗ LUC 61%
11 Syracuse 46
2 Houston 62
✓ HOU 71%
12 Oregon St 61
2 Houston 67
✓ HOU 78%