Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | USC -300 DRKE +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | USC -5.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -5.3 (+10.7) | 138.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -3.8 (+12.2) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -4.6 (+11.4) | 136.6 (-8.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -5.1 (+10.9) | 136.9 (-8.9) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#10) | 10.0 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#19) | 2.32 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#17) | 2.12 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#14) | 0.558 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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