Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -225 OHIO +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -6.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -6.0 (+8.0) | 149.4 (-19.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -4.4 (+9.6) | 146.1 (-16.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -5.6 (+8.4) | 150.6 (-20.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -6.1 (+7.9) | 148.9 (-18.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 17-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#21) | 7.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#22) | 1.08 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#28) | 1.18 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#50) | 0.543 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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