Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -275 UCLA +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +10 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -5.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -4.0 (-14.0) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -2.8 (-12.8) | 143.8 (+22.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -2.7 (-12.7) | 145.6 (+20.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.4 (-13.4) | 145.8 (+20.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 11-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#7) | 13.0 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#6) | 2.51 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#6) | 3.29 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#4) | 0.601 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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