He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
(2) Alabama Crimson Tide
78 88 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) UCLA Bruins
Hinkle Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 28, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -6.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money ALA -275 / UCLA +275
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual UCLA +10 166 Lost
Massey ALA -5.3 (-15.3)
Massey Totals 146.2 (+19.8)
Bradley-Terry 64%
Weighted B-T 63%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -3.7 (-13.7) 144.7 (+21.3) 69%
Model 4 ML ALA -4.1 (-14.1) 143.8 (+22.2) 67%
Model 3 ML ALA -5.7 (-15.7) 146.6 (+19.4) 73%
Baseline ML ALA -5.3 (-15.3) 145.2 (+20.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA UCLA
Neutral 7-3 6-3
Last 5 5-0 3-2
Massey 18.2 (#7) 13.0 (#30)
Bradley-Terry 3.07 (#6) 2.51 (#21)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.84 (#6) 3.29 (#18)
RPI 0.632 (#4) 0.601 (#18)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA UCLA
FG% 43.5% 46.3%
3PT% 35.5% 37.4%
REB / G 40.5 35.3
OREB / G 12.5 10.2
AST / TO 1.02 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 52.2%
TOV% 18.7% 16.1%
ORB% 32.1% 30.8%
FT Rate 20.5% 22.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.8% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 17.4%
DRB% 71.0% 75.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 20.6%

Game Analysis

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