Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -400 ORU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORU +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -10.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.5 (-12.5) | 151.5 (+7.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FLA -9.1 (-12.1) | 152.9 (+6.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | FLA -10.1 (-13.1) | 149.4 (+9.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.8 (-11.8) | 150.3 (+8.7) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#30) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#39) | 0.14 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#36) | 0.13 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#35) | 0.538 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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