Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -20000 HART +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +24 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -21.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -15.3 (+8.7) | 143.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -15.2 (+8.8) | 139.2 (-5.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -15.5 (+8.5) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -15.5 (+8.5) | 143.0 (-9.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 15-9 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-1 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#3) | -0.5 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#2) | 0.07 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.35 (#2) | -0.03 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#2) | 0.528 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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