Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
(8) North Carolina Tar Heels
62 85
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(9) Wisconsin Badgers
Mackey Arena (Neutral) · March 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money UNC -110 / WIS +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual WIS +23 147 Lost
Massey WIS -0.7 (-22.3)
Massey Totals 135.7 (+11.3)
Bradley-Terry 48%
Weighted B-T 41%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -0.8 (-23.8) 138.7 (+8.3) 49%
Model 4 ML UNC -0.9 (-23.9) 134.8 (+12.2) 51%
Model 3 ML UNC -1.0 (-24.0) 139.6 (+7.4) 59%
Baseline ML UNC -1.0 (-24.0) 137.9 (+9.1) 46%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC WIS
Overall 18-11 18-13
Conference 10-6 10-10
Home 10-1 11-5
Away 3-7 5-6
Neutral 5-3 2-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 75.2 69.9
Avg Pts Against 69.9 64.6
Massey 13.6 (#27) 14.3 (#19)
Bradley-Terry 2.11 (#38) 2.20 (#33)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.83 (#34) 3.18 (#19)
RPI 0.578 (#34) 0.539 (#89)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC WIS
FG% 44.1% 42.1%
3PT% 31.7% 35.9%
REB / G 43.2 33.6
OREB / G 15.9 8.3
AST / TO 1.05 1.49
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 49.4%
TOV% 20.5% 13.5%
ORB% 41.3% 23.6%
FT Rate 23.3% 20.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 17.8%
DRB% 73.7% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 18.8% 20.3%

Game Analysis

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