Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -110 WIS +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +23 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -0.7 (-22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.8 (-23.8) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UNC -0.9 (-23.9) | 134.8 (+12.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | UNC -1.0 (-24.0) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.0 (-24.0) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#27) | 14.3 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#38) | 2.20 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#34) | 3.18 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#34) | 0.539 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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