Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -300 UCSB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +1 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -6.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -4.8 (-3.8) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -3.9 (-2.9) | 136.1 (-11.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -4.5 (-3.5) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -5.1 (-4.1) | 137.6 (-12.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#17) | 7.8 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#21) | 1.79 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#26) | 1.96 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#62) | 0.583 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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