Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -120 GT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -2.3 (+8.7) | 126.7 (+4.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.6 (+9.4) | 124.3 (+6.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.0 (+10.0) | 127.2 (+3.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -2.2 (+8.8) | 124.7 (+6.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Home | 13-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#15) | 11.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#22) | 2.21 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#24) | 2.84 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#22) | 0.565 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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