Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -420 COLG +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -0.2 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -0.1 (+17.1) | 159.1 (-6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.5 (+16.5) | 157.1 (-4.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -0.4 (+16.6) | 159.4 (-6.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -0.2 (+16.8) | 157.2 (-4.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#10) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#15) | 2.80 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#17) | 4.12 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#17) | 0.601 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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