Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -420 COLG +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -0.2 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.5 (+14.5) | 158.1 (-5.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARK -2.1 (+14.9) | 155.5 (-2.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARK -1.3 (+15.7) | 159.3 (-6.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.3 (+14.7) | 157.2 (-4.2) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#10) | 16.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#15) | 2.80 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#17) | 4.12 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#17) | 0.601 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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