Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -250 UNT +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -5.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.9 (+19.1) | 127.2 (+17.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.1 (+18.9) | 124.0 (+21.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -4.2 (+18.8) | 125.9 (+19.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.4 (+19.6) | 126.7 (+18.3) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#15) | 9.2 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#18) | 1.51 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#17) | 1.86 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#14) | 0.564 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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