The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
(5) Villanova Wildcats
84 61
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) North Texas Mean Green
Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 22, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread VILL -6.5 Home covered
O/U 125.5 Over
Money VILL -250 / UNT +260
Model Predictions
Spread Total VILL win
Actual VILL +23 145 Won
Massey VILL -5.5 (+17.5)
Massey Totals 127.5 (+17.5)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Plus ML VILL -5.1 (+17.9) 125.7 (+19.3) 68%
Model 4 ML VILL -4.8 (+18.2) 124.3 (+20.7) 67%
Model 3 ML VILL -5.6 (+17.4) 127.8 (+17.2) 71%
Baseline ML VILL -4.3 (+18.7) 128.0 (+17.0) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VILL UNT
Neutral 5-3 5-1
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Massey 14.7 (#15) 9.2 (#57)
Bradley-Terry 2.51 (#18) 1.51 (#67)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.21 (#17) 1.86 (#72)
RPI 0.610 (#14) 0.564 (#53)
Shooting & Four Factors VILL UNT
FG% 45.0% 47.1%
3PT% 35.1% 37.5%
REB / G 34.3 33.2
OREB / G 9.5 8.4
AST / TO 1.69 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 54.1%
TOV% 13.4% 20.0%
ORB% 27.7% 27.7%
FT Rate 23.5% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 45.5%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 21.1%
DRB% 75.1% 72.2%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 22.6%

Game Analysis

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