All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
(3) Kansas Jayhawks
51 85
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) USC Trojans
Hinkle Fieldhouse (Neutral) · March 23, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread USC -1.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money KU +120 / USC -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total KU win
Actual USC +34 136 Lost
Massey USC -2.5 (-31.5)
Massey Totals 130.6 (+5.4)
Bradley-Terry 52%
Weighted B-T 47%
Baseline Plus ML USC -1.4 (-32.6) 133.8 (+2.2) 45%
Model 4 ML USC -1.1 (-32.9) 131.8 (+4.2) 47%
Model 3 ML USC -0.6 (-33.4) 131.8 (+4.2) 47%
Baseline ML USC -1.9 (-32.1) 127.7 (+8.3) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KU USC
Neutral 3-2 5-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Massey 14.1 (#21) 16.5 (#9)
Bradley-Terry 2.82 (#10) 2.74 (#14)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.42 (#15) 3.52 (#12)
RPI 0.594 (#21) 0.617 (#8)
Shooting & Four Factors KU USC
FG% 43.8% 46.8%
3PT% 34.0% 34.7%
REB / G 37.5 39.3
OREB / G 11.2 12.2
AST / TO 1.14 1.12
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 52.2%
TOV% 17.4% 18.0%
ORB% 31.0% 35.5%
FT Rate 21.6% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 45.0%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 17.3%
DRB% 73.3% 72.3%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 17.9%

Game Analysis

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