Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | KU +120 USC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +34 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -2.5 (-31.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -2.2 (-31.8) | 132.4 (+3.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.7 (-32.3) | 133.1 (+2.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -2.6 (-31.4) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -2.6 (-31.4) | 130.4 (+5.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#21) | 16.5 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#10) | 2.74 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#15) | 3.52 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#21) | 0.617 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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