Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -138 SYR +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -3.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -3.6 (-19.6) | 137.6 (+2.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SDSU -2.8 (-18.8) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SDSU -4.3 (-20.3) | 137.7 (+2.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.1 (-20.1) | 136.7 (+3.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#24) | 10.9 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#14) | 1.69 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#20) | 2.17 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#6) | 0.565 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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