Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -333 ORST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -11.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -8.0 (-2.0) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.8 (-1.8) | 127.5 (+0.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -8.2 (-2.2) | 132.7 (-4.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.7 (-1.7) | 129.6 (-1.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#4) | 8.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#4) | 2.22 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.13 (#5) | 3.00 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#2) | 0.559 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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