See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
(5) Villanova Wildcats
73 63
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(12) Winthrop Eagles
Corteva Coliseum (Neutral) · March 20, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread VILL -6.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money VILL -250 / WIN +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total VILL win
Actual VILL +10 136 Won
Massey VILL -7.2 (+2.8)
Massey Totals 148.0 (-12.0)
Bradley-Terry 63%
Weighted B-T 61%
Baseline Plus ML VILL -6.8 (+3.2) 141.6 (-5.6) 74%
Model 4 ML VILL -4.6 (+5.4) 139.4 (-3.4) 69%
Model 3 ML VILL -7.7 (+2.3) 144.3 (-8.3) 75%
Baseline ML VILL -7.9 (+2.1) 142.8 (-6.8) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VILL WIN
Overall 18-7 23-2
Conference 11-4 17-1
Home 9-0 11-1
Away 4-4 10-0
Neutral 5-3 2-1
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.8 78.9
Avg Pts Against 66.5 67.0
Massey 14.9 (#15) 7.7 (#75)
Bradley-Terry 2.47 (#18) 1.93 (#43)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.19 (#19) 2.72 (#34)
RPI 0.596 (#19) 0.588 (#25)
Shooting & Four Factors VILL WIN
FG% 45.0% 46.1%
3PT% 35.2% 35.3%
REB / G 34.3 40.2
OREB / G 9.6 13.0
AST / TO 1.69 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.0%
TOV% 13.6% 19.6%
ORB% 28.0% 35.6%
FT Rate 23.0% 24.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 49.0%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 22.4%
DRB% 75.2% 77.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.6% 22.4%

Game Analysis

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