Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -250 WIN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.4 (+4.6) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.4 (+6.6) | 138.5 (-2.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -5.2 (+4.8) | 141.6 (-5.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -5.3 (+4.7) | 142.5 (-6.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 17-1 |
| Home | 9-0 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#15) | 7.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#18) | 1.93 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#19) | 2.72 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#19) | 0.588 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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