Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -163 USU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -3.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -2.6 (+9.4) | 131.1 (-13.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -1.8 (+10.2) | 127.9 (-9.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -3.1 (+8.9) | 132.4 (-14.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -2.4 (+9.6) | 129.8 (-11.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 15-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.2 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#16) | 11.3 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#20) | 1.73 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#20) | 1.98 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#59) | 0.573 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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