What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
(6) Texas Tech Red Raiders
65 53
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(11) Utah State Aggies
Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (Neutral) · March 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread TTU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 129.5 Under
Money TTU -163 / USU +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total TTU win
Actual TTU +12 118 Won
Massey TTU -3.4 (+8.6)
Massey Totals 129.3 (-11.3)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 76%
Baseline Plus ML TTU -5.1 (+6.9) 131.9 (-13.9) 72%
Model 4 ML TTU -3.0 (+9.0) 127.9 (-9.9) 65%
Model 3 ML TTU -4.6 (+7.4) 131.2 (-13.2) 70%
Baseline ML TTU -4.2 (+7.8) 131.0 (-13.0) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TTU USU
Overall 18-11 20-9
Conference 9-8 15-4
Home 11-4 10-2
Away 5-4 7-3
Neutral 2-3 3-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 72.5 72.0
Avg Pts Against 63.2 62.3
Massey 14.7 (#16) 11.3 (#38)
Bradley-Terry 2.44 (#20) 1.73 (#53)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.13 (#20) 1.98 (#64)
RPI 0.556 (#59) 0.573 (#40)
Shooting & Four Factors TTU USU
FG% 44.3% 44.4%
3PT% 34.6% 33.7%
REB / G 35.1 40.8
OREB / G 11.7 12.6
AST / TO 1.18 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 49.8%
TOV% 16.3% 19.6%
ORB% 33.7% 35.3%
FT Rate 27.9% 21.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 45.6%
Opp TOV% 23.7% 19.8%
DRB% 70.0% 78.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.9% 19.3%

Game Analysis

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