Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -275 LUC +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +13 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -6.6 (-19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.6 (-17.6) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -4.3 (-17.3) | 131.4 (-2.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.6 (-17.6) | 133.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.7 (-17.7) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 26-5 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-0 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 56.4 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#3) | 15.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#3) | 2.54 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#3) | 3.26 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#9) | 0.599 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 79.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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