Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +43 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -27.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -16.6 (+26.4) | 152.1 (+0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -16.2 (+26.8) | 153.3 (-0.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -19.4 (+23.6) | 154.6 (-1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -19.6 (+23.4) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 12-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Massey | 24.9 (#1) | -2.4 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.59 (#1) | 0.39 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.26 (#1) | -0.06 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#1) | 0.540 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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