What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
(4) Purdue Boilermakers
69 78 OT
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(13) North Texas Mean Green
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread PUR -7.5 Away covered
O/U 124.5 Over
Money PUR -275 / UNT +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total PUR win
Actual UNT +9 147 Lost
Massey PUR -5.6 (-14.6)
Massey Totals 123.4 (+23.6)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline Plus ML PUR -6.9 (-15.9) 126.8 (+20.2) 72%
Model 4 ML PUR -6.2 (-15.2) 126.8 (+20.2) 66%
Model 3 ML PUR -7.3 (-16.3) 128.3 (+18.7) 77%
Baseline ML PUR -6.6 (-15.6) 130.5 (+16.5) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PUR UNT
Neutral 2-3 5-1
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Massey 13.9 (#23) 8.3 (#67)
Bradley-Terry 2.57 (#17) 1.21 (#79)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.47 (#14) 1.41 (#87)
RPI 0.583 (#31) 0.553 (#65)
Shooting & Four Factors PUR UNT
FG% 45.1% 47.1%
3PT% 33.5% 37.3%
REB / G 37.6 33.2
OREB / G 10.9 8.4
AST / TO 1.14 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.4% 54.0%
TOV% 18.8% 20.4%
ORB% 32.2% 27.6%
FT Rate 22.9% 20.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 21.3%
DRB% 75.9% 73.1%
Opp FT Rate 20.5% 23.1%

Game Analysis

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