Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -275 UNT +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -5.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.4 (-14.4) | 127.8 (+19.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.7 (-13.7) | 125.6 (+21.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.9 (-13.9) | 127.1 (+19.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.2 (-14.2) | 128.7 (+18.3) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#23) | 8.3 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#17) | 1.21 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#14) | 1.41 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#31) | 0.553 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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