Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -225 ORST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +10 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -5.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -5.1 (-15.1) | 144.2 (+5.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -3.4 (-13.4) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -3.6 (-13.6) | 143.7 (+6.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -4.2 (-14.2) | 144.1 (+5.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#30) | 7.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#5) | 1.75 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.07 (#5) | 2.36 (#47) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#6) | 0.534 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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