Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | OKST -300 LIB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -6.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -6.7 (+2.3) | 144.7 (-15.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -4.5 (+4.5) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -5.0 (+4.0) | 144.0 (-15.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -5.5 (+3.5) | 144.1 (-15.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 23-6 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-2 |
| Home | 10-3 | 13-0 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#32) | 5.3 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#5) | 0.91 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.08 (#7) | 1.18 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#10) | 0.538 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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