Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -600 UNCG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -8.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -7.0 (+3.0) | 140.9 (-22.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -4.9 (+5.1) | 138.5 (-20.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -5.7 (+4.3) | 140.7 (-22.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -6.6 (+3.4) | 138.5 (-20.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#21) | 6.0 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#23) | 1.14 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#29) | 1.45 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#40) | 0.569 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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