Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -225 ACU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +20 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -2.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -1.8 (+18.2) | 136.7 (-22.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -1.7 (+18.3) | 131.3 (-17.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -2.4 (+17.6) | 137.0 (-23.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -2.4 (+17.6) | 137.0 (-23.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 13-2 |
| Home | 11-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#39) | 8.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#28) | 1.46 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#25) | 1.55 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#27) | 0.576 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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