Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -20000 TXSO +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +16 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -22.7 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -15.9 (+0.1) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -13.5 (+2.5) | 139.4 (+8.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -18.0 (-2.0) | 142.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -17.9 (-1.9) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 10-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#6) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#5) | 0.44 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#4) | 0.11 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#10) | 0.540 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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