Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
(1) Gonzaga Bulldogs
85 66
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(6) USC Trojans
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 30, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread GONZ -8.5 Home covered
O/U 152.0 Under
Money GONZ -400 / USC +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total GONZ win
Actual GONZ +19 151 Won
Massey GONZ -7.7 (+11.3)
Massey Totals 158.0 (-7.0)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML GONZ -10.5 (+8.5) 155.2 (-4.2) 84%
Model 4 ML GONZ -7.1 (+11.9) 152.0 (-1.0) 81%
Model 3 ML GONZ -10.9 (+8.1) 156.8 (-5.8) 83%
Baseline ML GONZ -9.3 (+9.7) 155.2 (-4.2) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2023 GONZ 8976 USC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GONZ USC
Neutral 12-1 5-3
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Massey 26.1 (#1) 18.4 (#7)
Bradley-Terry 5.63 (#1) 3.03 (#6)
W. Bradley-Terry 7.27 (#1) 3.93 (#6)
RPI 0.664 (#1) 0.625 (#6)
Shooting & Four Factors GONZ USC
FG% 55.1% 47.4%
3PT% 37.3% 36.3%
REB / G 37.9 39.2
OREB / G 9.5 11.9
AST / TO 1.53 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 61.2% 53.1%
TOV% 16.2% 18.1%
ORB% 30.6% 35.4%
FT Rate 26.5% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.2% 44.5%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 17.0%
DRB% 77.0% 71.9%
Opp FT Rate 17.5% 17.7%

Game Analysis

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