Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | USC +130 GONZ -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +13 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -0.3 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -0.7 (-12.3) | 141.0 (+24.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -1.6 (-11.4) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -1.0 (-12.0) | 143.3 (+21.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -0.6 (-12.4) | 143.3 (+21.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 30, 2021 | GONZ 85 – 66 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#54) | 8.6 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#84) | 2.27 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#85) | 3.42 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#105) | 0.661 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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