Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USC -120 ORE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USC -4.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -2.5 (+11.5) | 135.7 (+14.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -2.1 (+11.9) | 133.6 (+16.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -1.9 (+12.1) | 136.9 (+13.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -2.6 (+11.4) | 137.2 (+12.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 21-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#7) | 13.9 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#7) | 2.93 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#6) | 3.63 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#6) | 0.605 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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