Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | USC -120 ORE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | USC -4.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -3.5 (+10.5) | 137.6 (+12.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USC -3.2 (+10.8) | 134.6 (+15.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USC -3.9 (+10.1) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -4.4 (+9.6) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
Game Analysis
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