Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -600 ORU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -14.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -12.0 (-10.0) | 156.6 (-14.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -10.8 (-8.8) | 157.2 (-15.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -12.5 (-10.5) | 156.8 (-14.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -12.1 (-10.1) | 154.9 (-12.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2020 | ARK 87 – 76 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#9) | 2.1 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#8) | 0.48 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.48 (#14) | 0.51 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#13) | 0.546 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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